Weather Along the Western Wildlands Bikepacking Route
“How cold do you think it will get?” PedalingGuy asks. He is trying to decide which sleeping bag to take with him, and he’s looking for a straightforward answer - something like, “It shouldn’t get below freezing.” But with PedalingGal, it’s never that simple.
Anyone who knows us is aware that PedalingGal likes to dig into the juicy details about the weather. For planning purposes, it’s helpful to know both how cold it might get and how often. That influences choices like which sleeping bag is best, which gloves/mittens might be ideal for keeping your fingers from freezing, or whether you’re even going to need gloves at all. What’s more, the seasonality of rain can have a big impact on choosing the best months for a cycling trip.
Hot or Cold, Wet or Dry
With that in mind, we’ve refined the process of synchronizing information about average weather values with the approximate dates we plan to be in various towns along the route. The result gives a picture of what we might be in for with respect to the weather.
Average high and low temperatures (lines), and average rainfall probability (green bars) along the Western Wildlands Bikepacking Route (closest towns) during our trip (click on the graph to expand the image). Values are based on travel from late-June to October 2021. Note that in some cases the weather presented in the graph, from the closet towns, may vary from that on the route due to elevation and other factors. Data from WeatherSpark.com, graphed by Pedals and Puffins (2021).
A big caveat for the graph above is that we frequently will be traveling up in the mountains, where there are no weather stations. Most of the data behind this chart is from the closest towns at elevations lower than where we will be spending the majority of our time. As a result, we think that the temperatures we will encounter between towns could be noticeably cooler than what the chart suggests. Even so, the relative changes in temperature over the course of the trip, as well as the minimum range of temperatures in particular locations, are still useful as a general guide. One should obviously be prepared for larger extremes.
Something that really stands out is that it might not get too cold. It looks like there could be nights below freezing, but there shouldn’t be too many nighttime temperatures far below freezing, even in the mountains. If true, that would take the edge off the fact that people say we should expect to encounter un-melted winter snow on the higher mountain passes up north. Of course, since we are talking about averages, the temperatures could get much warmer or colder depending on whether we happen to be lucky or not.
On the other hand, things start to get pretty toasty by the time we reach the Snake River Valley in southern Idaho, with high temperatures well over 80 F common on the rest of the route (and into the 90’s F after leaving Flagstaff, AZ). The high temperatures are likely to be more troublesome than the cold weather.
The probability of rain is a pretty big concern, too. Long sections of the Western Wildlands Bikepacking Route are impassable when wet - due to mucky, clay-based soils that become oil slicks when wet. The mud also sticks to your tires, with enough build up to stop your wheels from turning and making passage impossible. We have driven 4x4’s under such conditions and found ourselves in the roadside ditch even at very slow speeds. It’s not wise to underestimate the problem this could present. We are told that waiting until things dry out becomes the only alternative. Throughout much of the time we will be in Utah and Arizona, the probability of rain hovers between 20-25%. A western drought notwithstanding, we will likely have to deal with rain-soaked trails at some point. We’ll need to keep a sharp eye on the local forecasts.
When the West Wind Blows
The west wind will be blowing for sure. And nothing about the weather gets a cyclist’s attention quite as much as the wind. A headwind can sap your energy and enthusiasm, making any ride seem to last forever. On the other hand, a favorable wind makes you feel young, strong, and like you can climb any mountain. And no matter what direction the wind is blowing, if you’re going to spend a big chunk of your day outside, lighter winds are better than powerful gales.
Average probability of the wind direction (south/west/north/east), overlaid on the average peak wind speed (mph) along our planned cycling route (click on the graph to enlarge the image). Values are based on travel from late-June to October 2021. Data from WeatherSpark.com, graphed by Pedals and Puffins (2021).
From the looks of it, west winds (the orange bars in the chart above) will prevail until we’re half-way across Arizona. Our route wiggles and squiggles enough that we’ll end up riding into a westerly wind fairly often. But we’re still glad to see that winds out of the south (the green bars) should be relatively rare. That’s a relief because southerly winds would definitely be the most troublesome.
For the first quarter of the route, it appears that the winds might be quite light. That would be awesome. The three peaks in the average wind speed will hit us on the flat-and-open Snake River floodplain in Idaho, the treeless Wasatch Plateau in Utah, and the exposed deserts south of Phoenix, AZ. Luckily we’re accustomed to cycling in winds 10-15 mph. We live in a fairly windy place, with average wind speeds over 10 mph more than half the year. Overall, this wind map doesn’t look too scary.
“Bad weather always looks worse through a window,” Tom Lehrer (musician and mathematician)
In the end, these data are only averages. When out on the trail, almost anything could happen. It’s no surprise that a common saying is if you don’t like the weather, just wait a few minutes. We’ll undoubtedly encounter a wide range of conditions. And PedalingGuy will have his hands full trying to keep PedalingGal from filling her blog posts with comments about the weather. But perhaps Tom Lehrer said it best. No matter what the weather brings, we’d rather be out on a cycling adventure in the elements than cooped up at home.
