"Chovendo canivete" or "das Kaiserwetter"? The Weather in Europe
Predicting the weather is probably a fool’s errand. “Average” temperatures and rainfall are rarely experienced for any length of time. In the real world, precipitation and temperature can fluctuate pretty dramatically around the averages. We experienced this phenomenon when we cycled across the United States in 2018: it was one of the hottest summers on record, with unusually sunny weather and very low rainfall. So, why go to the trouble of trying to figure out what the weather will be like all across Europe in 2019?
Well, it turns out there’s comfort in having at least some idea about what the weather might be like. And as you will learn if you follow our blog, I like data. I like graphs and charts, and having a picture in my mind that helps organize the chaos of possible scenarios.
So, I used data from the experts at WeatherSpark.com, and graphed the average temperatures and rainfall probabilities for our planned route. As expected, the weather will tend to be chillier than we’re used to.
Average high and low temperatures along our planned cycle touring route, Europe 2019 (click on the graph for a larger version). Temperatures are based on travel from 17 February-9 December. “Plan B” depicts the temperatures for an alternate route in November/December, heading south through Macedonia and Greece. Data from Weather Spark, graphed by Pedals and Puffins (2019).
Although we won’t encounter a true “rainy season,” rain is likely to be with us for most of the journey. Unlike North America, we won’t be cycling through any truly arid regions. The weather’s likely to be at least a bit soggy all the way across Europe.
Average probability of rain along our planned cycle touring route, Europe 2019 (click on the graph for a larger version). Based on travel from 17 February-9 December. Data from Weather Spark, graphed by Pedals and Puffins (2019).
Based on our past experience, temperatures ranging from roughly 45 F (7 C) to 65 F (18 C) are comfortable enough for cycle touring. At these temperatures you might need to bundle up a bit, but you’re not at risk of real discomfort. From 65-75 F (18-24 C), it’s balmy, and warm enough to cycle comfortably in just a jersey and shorts. But below 45 degrees, things start to get nippy. We’re looking at some potentially cold nights in Spain (March) and Hungary/Serbia/Romania (late October-December).
Who knows? We might get lucky and have warmer temperatures late next year. But, recognizing the risk of biking through Romania in winter, we’ve got a Plan B. If things turn too cold once we pass Budapest in late October, we have the option of heading due south through Serbia, Macedonia and Greece - ending our trip in Athens. Average temperatures on that route look like they’d be a good alternative if needed. The shorter ride would also mean ending the trip about a week earlier.
So, whether it’s “chovendo canivete” (raining pocket knives, in Portuguese) or “das Kaiserwetter” (“emperor’s weather” - a nice day, in German), we’ll be ready.